Midwest Gaming Journal

Wisconsin: Good Blackjack - Bad Poker

I've been traveling in Wisconsin over the past month and stopped by some of the state's biggest, and smallest casinos. Overall I found most casinos offer double-deck blackjack games that pay the critical 3:2 on a natural 21. I've also played cards at some grubby so-called card rooms. Here's a list of the best and worst for card games.

BEST BLACKJACK

1. Menominee Casino & Bingo - Keshena This game is identical to downtown Las Vegas tables with one exception: Great penetration. Up to 66%. $10 min with at least one table going at all time. Yummy.
2. Ho Chunk Casino - Baraboo $10 minimum tables on the main floor. No doubles after splits seems to be the biggest drawback. Very nice and new floor. 
3. Oneida Casino - Green Bay The double deck games are green chippers and are located in the high limit area. Sightly better than Potowatomi, only because of the penetration (55%-65%)
4. Potowatomi Bingo Casino - Milwaukee A handful of games on the main casino floor. Penetration sucks at barely over a deck. If there's more than one person sitting with you it's almost pointless.

         BEST POKER

1. Potowatomi Bingo Casino - Milwaukee The 20+ table room is brand-new. Spacious and friendly, albeit busy. Games that are spread are a little weird: No $1/$2 no-limit, just a $3/$5 no-limit $600 max. Usually the only limit games run are $2/$4 and $4/$8.
2. Menominee Casino & Bingo - Keshena A dozen of the most underused poker tables in Wisconsin. Not a bad room for the area, but cash games are lame - mostly low stakes limit games with an Omaha game on Thursday. Frequent tournaments look appealing.
3. Oneida Casino (Mason Street) - Green Bay This grubby room has a handful of tables and a friendly staff. $3/$6 limit and $1/$2 no-limit seem to run perpetually. There are a few weekly tournaments.
4. Ho Chunk Casino - Baraboo The poker room is just a section of the horse book (I think so all of the degenerate gamblers can be kept in one area). It's smoky, dingy, oddly-lit, and you have to play cards next to those damned horse-bettors. One point of note: There was a $6/$12 limit mixed game of Hold'em and Omaha Hi/Low (sometimes referred to as a HO game, but be careful how and with whom you use that terminology.)   

I was only able to sample a handful of the 27 casinos in the great state of Wisconsin. Many of the gambling joints are slots only, the ones I hit are the larger ones with tables. While none seemed overly crowded, they were far from dead.

Penetration!

Now that I have your attention, you're probably disappointed to know I'm talking about blackjack.

Most good or advantage players will never play cards in the Midwest because there are no good games to be found. Trying to make money off the typical Illinois-Iowa-Indiana-etc. blackjack tables is like getting water from a cactus - You'll get a little of what you came for, but it's not worth the pain and hassle. But I do have some good news.

Most smart players know the only places to get decent action playing 21 is at the Potowatomi casino in Milwaukee and at the Grand Vic in Elgin. I hadn't been to either in quite a while and was surprised at what I saw: The Potowatomi now has their favorable double deck pitch games on the main floor with $25 minimum bets. But in the Elgin high limit salon the 2-decked game has Vegas style rules (much more favorable than the game in Elgin) and has dropped their table minimum to $100.

Blackjack Still Down in Aurora

I'm still keeping an eye on the 21 table profits (or lack there of) at the Hollywood casino. Over the past few months it's been down, and the trend continues. While the state's hold percentage continues to be over 10% the Aurora riverboat is still only keeping a smidgen over 2% of the customer's cash. Here are my theories:

1. The dealers are showing both their cards, but the game's rules suck so bad the player still can't turn a profit.
2. Reservation blackjack has offended people because of the lofty seat rental price, and it's offensive to Native Americans.
3. They used to figure in cigarette sales into the blackjack profits.
4. The dealers think they're playing poker and payout when their Ace-King loses to a pair of 6's.
5. People have wised up and stopped playing games with crappy penetration, dealers that hit  soft-17, no doubling-after-splitting, and no surrender.

I think all of these are legitimate possibilities - except the last one.

Don't Let The Casino Give Up

Casino table games are filled with bad side bets, especially in blackjack. The little squares just northeast of the the betting circles are dubbed with fun names like "Bonanza Blackjack", "Lucky Ladies", and "Super Sevens". But trust me when I tell you there's nothing super, lucky, or bonanza-like with these sucker's wagers. Casino Surrender falls in line with these rip-offs, too.

Some casinos allow a player to surrender their hand if they're looking at crap. For example, say you're dealt a 16 and the dealer is showing an ace. You're screwed. In nice casinos, you can say to the dealer, "I surrender!" and the nice dealer will take half your bet, returning the other half to you. A player can call for a Casino Surrender when they're dealt a two-card 20 and the dealer is showing a 10 or face card, with no blackjack. Then dealer will end the player's hand by paying out half the player's bet. So if you're betting $10 and dealt an Ace-9 then the dealer flips over a King (and doesn't have blackjack) you can holler, "Casino surrender, please!" Then the dealer (presumably still nice) will pay you $5, and you keep your original bet. The funny part about this is it offers terrible odds to the player, and many of the casinos that offer this don't allow player surrenders.

The player is likely to win with a 20 vs. a dealer 10 more often then not. Taking less money means cutting the casinos losses. And good luck finding a table in the Midwest that offers both surrenders. Most riverboats will chuckle if you ask to dump your 16, but will gladly pay off half your bet on a 20.

Casino Surrender was created by a Chicago area company in 2006. In turn, you can find their invention on a number of area gambling barges. I just found out about the Casino Surrender or Automatic Win, because it's not promoted well. Statistically speaking, there is no reason for a player to take Casino Surrender (unless they're counting and the true count is plus-4). It's little more than a carnival bet.

There are blackjack pros and aficionados around the globe that have become disgusted with their favorite table game. From 6/5 blackjack payoffs to shuffless tables, the house edge has become almost unbearable. It's hard to find good games in Vegas, and nearly impossible to find a fair table in the Midwest. Casino Surrender isn't as bad as some of the silly side bets, skilled players can use it to their advantage. But to the regular gamblers it's just another contrived contraption casinos use to take their money.

Taking a Hit

When the pit boss with a Pompadour said, "Do you think you're from MIT, or something?" I knew it was time to get out of the Four Queens. It was May but the heat inside the downtown casinos was much hotter than in the surrounding desert. The next morning I was kicked out of the Golden Nugget for playing with an advantage (or attempting to, anyway). I'd only been playing for a half hour - and I was down. In February after playing 45 minutes at the Palace Station, I was booted. I didn't think much of these incidents until I stumbled across a couple of things.

First was the book Winner Takes All by Christina Binkley. In the book she mentions huge losses sustained at Rio during 2002 was possibly the work of a sophisticated card counting team. Then I read this article in the Las Vegas Review Journal that wonders why Vegas casinos have seen such dramatic drops on how much they're raking in at the blackjack tables. But profits are going down in places other than the Strip.

The Hollywood casino in Aurora has seen profits at the 21-tables drop substantially, and even operating at a loss.

                                          

MONTH        HOLD%     STATE AVG HOLD%   
January         8.95                 15.13
February       4.63                 12.31
March         11.72                 16.05
April            -5.24                 10.33

Kinda weird, huh? While this could be the work of savvy counters, I doubt it. Though it's hard to figure out what's happened here. I've take a few trips to Hollywood recently, each time most of the tables were very busy. The only table light on action was their Reservation Blackjack table. It's the only table in the casino where you can play $5 a hand, but the seat rental is $20 per hour. The lofty hourly fee make this game as profitable as the 6/5 games dominating the Vegas Strip (read: you ain't making money here).

A skilled team could leak cash from casino for a long time, like say, four months. Especially if security isn't that tight.

"If (casino surveillance)  knew what (the counters) were doing, they'd be doing it themselves," says Richard Marcus, the self-proclaimed world's biggest casino cheat.  Speaking from his home in France he adds, "The worst casino security in the world is in Las Vegas. They think they know everything." Well, at least they know something.

Entry level casino security personnel can expect to make around $9/hr. They will go through an extensive training program, and even watch a video on card counting, but these people don't have a chance of nailing a top-notch team.

Still, it would surprise me if counters were responsible for Hollywood's dropping numbers. But what is? And what is Hollywood going to do to correct it?